Libor manipulation

PROBLEM

  • Fideres was retained by class counsel in the US, to support the antitrust testifying expert

  • Fideres was asked to analyze defendant banks’ LIBOR submissions and determine if their behavior was consistent with the allegations of collusion or could be the result of parallel conduct

  • We were asked to identify suitable counterfactual measures for LIBOR’s benchmark to estimate the amount of suppression of panel banks’ respective LIBOR submissions during and post the Great Financial Crisis

  • In addition, our instructions included developing a damages model to determine damages suffered by investors.

 

SOLUTION

  • Leveraging on Fideres’ knowledge of financial markets and the industry, we developed innovative but-for approaches integrating numerous sources of banks’ borrowing pricing data to derive counterfactuals for LIBOR

  • We elaborated cross-infection theory to estimate LIBOR suppression in different currencies

 

RESULT

  • We estimated that LIBOR manipulation continued until mid-2012

  • We generated a model for estimating counterfactual LIBOR levels in different currencies and tenors

  • We determined daily quantum of LIBOR suppression during the period analyzed