FX Manipulation

Problem 

  • Determine in which ways and at what times market manipulation may have been taking place in foreign exchange (FX) markets

  • Estimate the amount of damages caused by FX manipulation and which categories of plaintiffs were impacted by the alleged misconduct

 

Solution

  • Fideres built a statistical model to capture FX dynamics and determine anomalous market movements around the daily 4pm WM/Reuters fixing that could have been caused by manipulative behavior, such as front-running, banging the close or painting the screen

  • We analyzed 27 currency pairs. These include all major G10 currency pairs as well as a selection of emerging market currencies

  • Fideres extended damage theories to include manipulation of other fixings, (such as the ECB fixing) manipulation of bid/ask spreads as well as manipulation in the futures market

 

Result

  • We estimated frequency and quantum of alleged manipulation across a basket of the most frequently traded currencies

  • We assessed damages on both a class-wide basis, as well as for a selection of large institutional investors, arising from manipulation of the WM/Reuters fixing, the ECB fixing, bid/ask spreads in the spot as well as  the futures market